Scorevance Prediction Accuracy: 75.9% over 5,199 matches
Scorevance Scorevance Published record

How accurate are Scorevance predictions?

Most prediction apps advertise an accuracy number and never show their working. This page publishes ours in full - every resolved pre-match prediction, scored against the final result, with sample sizes, monthly history and the methodology behind it.

Covering matches from to . Last recalculated .

Overall accuracy

75.9%

5,199 resolved predictions

Avg Brier score

0.179

Lower is better · 0.25 = a coin flip

Matches covered

5,199

Pre-match predictions only

Accuracy by confidence band

Every prediction carries a confidence rating. If the ratings are meaningful, high-confidence predictions should land more often than low-confidence ones. This is the table that shows whether that actually holds.

Confidence Predictions Accuracy Brier
High 1,366 81.7% 0.146
Medium 3,737 74.3% 0.189
Low 96 57.3% 0.251

Month by month

A single lifetime average can hide a bad run. Each month is published as it lands, good or bad.

Month Predictions Accuracy Brier
December 2025 388 80.4% 0.154
January 2026 471 76.7% 0.176
February 2026 736 77.2% 0.170
March 2026 702 72.2% 0.199
April 2026 769 75.9% 0.179
May 2026 706 72.1% 0.200
June 2026 84 84.5% 0.135
July 2026 357 78.2% 0.165
August 2026 986 76.8% 0.175

By competition

The competitions we have predicted most often. Coverage depth varies a lot, so the sample size column matters as much as the percentage.

Competition Predictions Accuracy Brier
Premier League 497 76.3% 0.177
FA Cup 416 76.0% 0.181
Championship 322 75.5% 0.182
Europa Conference League 306 76.8% 0.175
La Liga 2 280 75.4% 0.186
Serie B 228 75.9% 0.183
La Liga 225 77.8% 0.172
Serie A 223 82.1% 0.147
Liga Portugal 203 75.9% 0.169
Pro League 192 78.7% 0.164
Super Lig 184 80.4% 0.158
Ekstraklasa 183 73.2% 0.195

Methodology

Pre-match predictions only

Only predictions published before kick-off are counted. Scorevance also produces live in-play predictions, and those are deliberately excluded: a prediction made at 85 minutes with a two-goal lead on the board is nearly always right, and counting it would inflate the headline number for free.

One prediction per match

Where a fixture has more than one pre-match prediction, only the most recent one counts. A single match can never contribute more than once.

Scored against the final result

A prediction is only included once its match has finished and a final score is confirmed. Accuracy is the share of predictions whose selected outcome matched what actually happened. Postponed, abandoned and cancelled fixtures are not scored.

Brier score, not just hit rate

Hit rate alone rewards a model for hedging towards favourites. The Brier score measures calibration - how close the stated probability was to what happened - so a model claiming 90% confidence and being wrong is penalised more than one claiming 55%. Lower is better; 0.25 is what you would score by guessing at even odds.

Grouped by match day

Predictions are bucketed by when the match was played, not when the prediction was generated, so a Saturday fixture predicted on Thursday counts towards Saturday.

Small samples are withheld, not rounded up

Any bucket with fewer than 30 resolved predictions shows its sample size but not a percentage. "3 out of 3 correct" is not a 100% accurate model, and publishing it as one would be misleading.

What these numbers do not mean

See the predictions behind the numbers

Every prediction on this page was published in the app before kick-off, with its probabilities and reasoning attached.

Get Scorevance - Free