Scorevance Prediction Accuracy: 75.3% over 6,687 matches
Scorevance Scorevance Published record

How accurate are Scorevance predictions?

Most prediction apps advertise an accuracy number and never show their working. This page publishes ours in full - every resolved pre-match prediction, scored against the final result, with sample sizes, monthly history and the methodology behind it.

Covering matches from to . Last recalculated .

Overall accuracy

75.3%

6,687 resolved predictions

Avg Brier score

0.182

Lower is better · 0.25 = a coin flip

Matches covered

6,687

Pre-match predictions only

Accuracy by confidence band

Every prediction carries a confidence rating. If the ratings are meaningful, high-confidence predictions should land more often than low-confidence ones. This is the table that shows whether that actually holds.

Confidence Predictions Accuracy Brier
High 1,482 82.5% 0.141
Medium 5,010 74.0% 0.191
Low 195 54.9% 0.251

Month by month

A single lifetime average can hide a bad run. Each month is published as it lands, good or bad.

Month Predictions Accuracy Brier
December 2025 388 80.4% 0.154
January 2026 471 76.7% 0.176
February 2026 736 77.2% 0.170
March 2026 702 72.2% 0.199
April 2026 769 75.9% 0.179
May 2026 706 72.1% 0.200
June 2026 84 84.5% 0.135
July 2026 357 78.2% 0.165
August 2026 1,280 75.5% 0.182
September 2026 924 73.3% 0.190
October 2026 270 74.4% 0.182

By competition

The competitions we have predicted most often. Coverage depth varies a lot, so the sample size column matters as much as the percentage.

Competition Predictions Accuracy Brier
FA Cup 721 77.0% 0.177
Premier League 627 75.6% 0.178
Championship 413 73.9% 0.190
La Liga 2 359 73.8% 0.191
Europa Conference League 330 76.4% 0.177
La Liga 288 78.1% 0.171
Serie B 278 75.5% 0.186
Serie A 275 82.6% 0.148
Liga Portugal 251 74.1% 0.177
Pro League 239 78.7% 0.163
Ekstraklasa 231 71.9% 0.199
Super Lig 230 77.4% 0.172

Methodology

Pre-match predictions only

Only predictions published before kick-off are counted. Scorevance also produces live in-play predictions, and those are deliberately excluded: a prediction made at 85 minutes with a two-goal lead on the board is nearly always right, and counting it would inflate the headline number for free.

One prediction per match

Where a fixture has more than one pre-match prediction, only the most recent one counts. A single match can never contribute more than once.

Scored against the final result

A prediction is only included once its match has finished and a final score is confirmed. Accuracy is the share of predictions whose selected outcome matched what actually happened. Postponed, abandoned and cancelled fixtures are not scored.

Brier score, not just hit rate

Hit rate alone rewards a model for hedging towards favourites. The Brier score measures calibration - how close the stated probability was to what happened - so a model claiming 90% confidence and being wrong is penalised more than one claiming 55%. Lower is better; 0.25 is what you would score by guessing at even odds.

Grouped by match day

Predictions are bucketed by when the match was played, not when the prediction was generated, so a Saturday fixture predicted on Thursday counts towards Saturday.

Small samples are withheld, not rounded up

Any bucket with fewer than 30 resolved predictions shows its sample size but not a percentage. "3 out of 3 correct" is not a 100% accurate model, and publishing it as one would be misleading.

What these numbers do not mean

See the predictions behind the numbers

Every prediction on this page was published in the app before kick-off, with its probabilities and reasoning attached.

Get Scorevance - Free